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Panthers come to Murray seeking upset of 11th-ranked Racers

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01/28/2012 - Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 11th-ranked Murray State Racers continue the greatest season in school history when they entertain Ohio Valley Conference foe Eastern Illinois tonight at CFSB Arena in Kentucky.

Eastern Illinois is hoping to break out of a four-game slump, as the team currently sits a game below .500 on the year (9-10), and three games below in OVC action (2-5). The Panthers, who dropped a 63-45 decision at Jacksonville State on Thursday night, are facing a ranked team for the 17th time in their history, and they are 0-16 in previous encounters, including 0-13 on the road.

Murray State is the only undefeated team left in Division I, coming into this clash at 20-0, 8-0 in conference. The Racers have not only won every game this season, but they have done so by an average of 14.5 ppg. While dominating the OVC might not resonate with the casual fan, beating the likes of Southern Miss, Dayton and Memphis at least gives the team what many would consider a few quality wins.

Murray State owns a commanding 35-10 lead in the all-time series with Eastern Illinois, and the Racers won the first meeting between the two this season -- 73-40 back on December 30. EIU is however, the last team to beat the Racers on their home floor, doing so in a 61-60 final last season.

Eastern Illinois boasts three double-digit scorers in the form of Jeremy Granger (16.0 ppg, 3.8 apg), Alfonzo McKinnie (11.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Joey Miller (10.1 ppg, 2.8 apg). Unfortunately, no other player averages more than 7.8 ppg, and the majority of them net fewer than six ppg. That leaves the team with a scoring average of 67.9 ppg, and it does so on 43.8 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 32.7 percent showing from three-point range. Defensively, the Panthers permit 69.1 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 45.0 percent overall and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc. EIU is dead even in terms of rebounding margin, and almost the same in turnover differential. The Panthers were absolutely dreadful in their recent loss to Jacksonville State, hitting a paltry 32.7 percent of their total shots, missing all four of their three-point tries along the way. McKinne was the only player to score in double figures, turning in a double-double performance consisting of 14 points and 11 rebounds.

With a record as impressive as that the Racers possess, it's no surprise that just about everything the team does, it does well. Currently, there are three double-digit scorers in the fold, led by Isaiah Canaan with his 18.7 ppg. A 47.2 percent sniper from three-point land, Canaan also adds 4.0 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game to his average stat line, which helps the team net 75.6 ppg on 47.5 percent field goal accuracy, which includes a stellar 41.8 percent showing from downtown -- that latter figure ranking the team fourth in the country. Donte Poole (14.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg) and Ivan Aska (12.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg) round out the offensive-minded trio for Murray State, which also plays pretty solid defense in yielding just 61.0 ppg behind shooting efforts that hover around 42 percent overall and 28 percent from long range. The Racers have also proven to be an opportunistic bunch, as they goad the opposition into 17.5 turnovers per outing. Canaan hit for 21 points, Jewuan Long added 17, Poole 14 and Ed Daniel 10 in the Racers' 82-65 win over SIU-Edwardsville last Saturday. The key stat in the game saw Murray State score 32 points off SIUE's 21 turnovers.


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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

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One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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